Will New York Lose (or Keep) a Congressional District After 2020?

At the end of every year, two national redistricting vendor firms (the folks you hire to draw your maps if you don’t do it in house) release their congressional reapportionment estimates based on the Census Bureau’s annual state population estimates. We are providing the estimates from Polodata.org here. More later from Election Data Services.

Dec 23, 2014. STATE POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR JULY 1, 2014.

The Census Bureau estimates that the national resident population has increased 9.5 million persons (3.07%) since the July 1, 2010 estimates.
(The comparable rate of growth for the 2000 to 2004 timeframe was 4.06%.)
National totals for Total Resident Population (50 states+DC):
Jul 1, 2014 Estimates: 318,857,056
Jul 1, 2010 Estimates: 309,347,057
(Apr 1, 2010 Census: 308,745,538)
States with the largest percentage gains:
ND +9.7%
DC +8.9%
TX +6.8%
CO +6.1%
UT +6.1%
States with the smallest gains or losses:
WV -0.2%
VT +0.1%
RI +0.2%
ME +0.2%
IL +0.3%
States closest to the national average rate:
CA +3.9%
VA +3.7%
WY +3.5%
POLIDATA Home Page.
Dec 30, 2014. CONGRESSIONAL APPORTIONMENT ESTIMATES FOR 2014

By using the recent state-level estimates for the post-2010 census estimates it is possible to get a general sense as to which states might gain or lose a seat or more in the apportionment of 2020.
Of course, these are simply to provide a very general idea based upon the assumption that the apportionment would be made upon these numbers alone, without any projection out and without any additional persons for federal overseas personnel.
Were these estimates used to apportion seats in the U.S. House, there would have been only two shifts over the actual apportionment made in December of 2010.
MN would lose 1 seat, dropping from 8 to 7
PA would lose 1 seat, dropping from 18 to 17
NC would gain 1 seat, increasing from 13 to 14
TX would gain 1 seat, increasing from 36 to 37
Note, compared to the previous year’s annual estimates these shifts confirm for MN and NC but add PA and TX.
(In fact, following the actual apportionment in December 2010, two states were flipped, with NC (-16,000) losing out to MN (+9,000) for the last seat.)
Based upon the 2014 estimates: MI is now ranked at 435, with an extra 48,000 persons. PA is now ranked at 436, falling short by 63,000 persons.
Several other states were fairly close to the cutoff of the 435th seat (actually only 385 are apportioned under the formula). Comparing the ranks in the December 2010 apportionment with the July 1, 2014 estimates: (Note that there are some difference in the notations here compared to previous summaries. The parenthetical net compares to positions in the ranks.)

ABOVE the 2014 cutoff:
Seat 431: CA at 53, at 434 in 2010 (+3), with a 427,000 person surplus.
Seat 432: TX at 37, at 447 in 2010 (+15), with a 278,000 person surplus.
Seat 433: NC at 14, at 436 in 2010 (+3), with a 82,000 person surplus.
Seat 434: IL at 18, at 423 in 2010 (-11), with a 93,000 person surplus.
Seat 435: MI at 14, at 424 in 2010 (-11), with a 48,000 person surplus.
BELOW the 2014 cutoff:
Seat 436: PA at 18, at 427 in 2010 (-9), with a 63,000 person deficit.
Seat 437: MN at 8, at 435 in 2010 (-2), with a 40,000 person deficit.
Seat 438: CA at 54, at 445 in 2010 (+7), with a 495,000 person deficit.
Seat 439: OR at 6, at 442 in 2010 (+3), with a 53,000 person deficit.
Seat 440: VA at 12, at 444 in 2010 (+4), with a 113,000 person deficit.
POLIDATA Home Page.
Dec 30, 2014. STATE POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR JULY 1, 2014: PROJECTIONS TO 2020

Based upon the new 2014 state-level estimates (see above), a quick review of projections out from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2020 is the basis for a quick review of possible scenarios in the future.
These projections are simple extrapolations based upon the most recent trends and do not account for any overseas personnel nor are they adjusted for the April 1, 2020 census date.
There could be 6 states gaining and 7 or 8 states losing a seat or more based upon alternative scenarios. The scenarios simply modify the rate of growth from the most recent years.
Of these 14 or 15 states only 1 would see a shift or more than 1 seat: TX could gain 2 or 3 seats depending upon the scenario.
States that could gain:
CO, FL, MT, NC, TX, and VA
States that could lose:
IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI, and WV
The only difference in the states listed is that in one scenario MN would remain at 8 and TX gain only 2 but in the other scenarios MN would lose and TX would gain 3.
The positions of states varies in the scenarios: AL and MT are seats 435 and NY and CA are seat 436. In several cases the number of persons in the surplus or deficit is under 25,000.
POLIDATA Home Page.
Dec 30, 2013. STATE POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR JULY 1, 2013.

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s